February Freeze – don’t bet on it

Looking for the February freeze after the really warm January? It seems like we’ve had a few winters in the northeast corridor of the United States that got going only in late winter. It seems unlikely for this February. Several predictors at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are pointing toward warmer than normal for each week of the month.

For technical details, see the discussion document linked here. Click on ‘discussion’ in the sidebar. My favorite part:

The CPC Week 3-4 Outlook indicates high probabilities 
for above normal temperatures over the eastern CONUS and some enhanced 
probabilities of below normal temperatures over the Northwest. 
With the variable circulation pattern predicted through February, the 
updated temperature outlook represents a significant change from the 
previous February outlook, released in mid-January.

The links that popped up about the rapid update to this forecast caught my attention and the discussion quoted above shows why the climate center needed to change the previous outlook calling for a larger area of likely below normal temperatures.

Of course, note that a 40% chance of above normal on average for the month means a 60% chance of near or below normal for a monthly temperature average. Although, the 70% chance of above normal for the second half of February is pretty impressive for that far out.

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