Weather for Christmas

The only outside the box experience at this time of year should be when people unwrap presents!

But this Christmas is forecast to have temperatures and moisture in the eastern United States that is truly outside the box.  The amount of moisture above today us is five standard deviations above normal.  I know that three standard deviations includes 99.7 percent of all the data points – put another way, with 31 days in December a three standard deviation data point is one day in ten years of Decembers.  (Someone better at statistics can do the math for FIVE standard deviations.)

The forecast for Christmas Eve is temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.  I’ve experienced temperatures in the 60s at Christmas a couple of times in my life.  I don’t think they happened with CLOUDY skies!  So this is truly outside the box. The forecast temperatures for the NYC area for Thursday would be the highest temperature for December 24th by 6 to 10 degrees!


If the extended forecast for the rest of December is close to accurate, Central Park will exceed the all-time warmest average temperature for December by EIGHT degrees.  I don’t usually like repeating stories about  ‘if we get x temperature for y days, we have [an incredible record set]’, but this time it looks for real.  For more, follow the links, below.

From weatherunderground and About forecast temperatures and forecast monthly average

Caveats:  With all the clouds, the temperature forecast for Christmas Eve is tricky.  But if this was summer with high sun and good mixing, with temperatures a mile above us at 16 degrees Celsius as forecast for Thursday, our high temperature would be in the upper 80’s.

The forecast for the weekend is uncertain as to the timing of events, including possible rain showers, so check the forecast a few times a day for updates from the National Weather Service or your favorite private weather provider.

Merry   warm and humid 😦  Christmas!


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