Models trending toward an offshore track for Joaquin, but don’t look away yet

More details on the background and physics are in yesterday’s post, but last night’s runs of the US model, which was forecasting a direct hit on the Carolinas, is keeping Joaquin offshore.  But don’t stop keeping an eye on this storm – still lots of moisture ahead of it and remember the reason the models have such different solutions is because Joaquin will move northward and bounce around the edges of the high pressure system like it was a bouncy castle.  Here’s the last two model runs for the same time…and the new run from the 8am Thursday data has more updated data than the 1am Thursday run, so it may be quite different.

US Global (GFS) model forecast map for Monday evening from 8pm model run.

US Global (GFS) model forecast map for Monday evening from 8pm model run.

US Global (GFS) model for Monday, 8pm from 1am Thursday model run

US Global (GFS) model for Monday, 8pm from 1am Thursday model run

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