We got almost an inch of rain in two hours Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. That’s not Joaquin.
Then, the tropical moisture plume reboots for over an inch of rain on Friday. That’s not Joaquin.
Monday – rain likely – maybe that’s the long-awaited Joaquin making an appearance over us.
Or, maybe just the first two. Meat Loaf sings ‘Two outta’ three ain’t bad’, but even two of these may be bad – too much rain at once.
Then, we have the problematic Joaquin. Tuesday, most models let Joaquin linger in the tropics, then send it slamming into the Carolina coast. But the European forecast model, often a bit better at this kind of events, has Joaquin taking the exit into the open expanses of the Atlantic Ocean. So the National Hurricane Center has put it’s forecast path for the storm to the left, but putting the right edge where the European model sends Joaquin. Check Thursday and again on Friday with NHC for updates.
The models are contending with lots of pressure – hey, they’re models – they don’t emote, much less feel pressure. So the pressure we’re talking about here is the stalled low pressure systems and a strong high pressure system blocking the way, treating Joaquin like its balanced on a beach ball – Joaquin could ‘fall’ either way.
Capital Weather Gang had a great article on the effects of this kind of weather pattern. Don’t bother with the adjoining articles on the forecast at least until tomorrow mid-day – the models will have already changed since they write them.
In the meantime, watch the US GFS model loop the storm through Virginia and the Carolinas and, weaken, move northeast over us…. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php
Here’s a frame from the model’s movie – note the massive high pressure systems blocking the way, blocked by the low over the Atlantic, and Joaquin waiting for one way out. Oh, did I mention the blocking high increasing our winds and funneling tropical moisture our way?