Muddled models

As the NYC National Weather Service office noted yesterday, the computer forecast models have been at odds all week on low pressure forming to our south and coming up the east coast.  Maybe the models don’t like a winter storm in August.

But the storm is expected to stay well offshore and we’ll mostly just get high clouds as a side-effect of the storm.  It will form off the coasts of the Carolinas on a front that will give the DC area some light to moderate rain today.  Philadelphia gets only a chance of a shower.  Then the storm will arc into New England, its rain just missing Boston and settling into Maine.

The better chance for rain for us is late Monday into Tuesday as models have more consistently shown a cold front with a low pressure system forming on it and holding the front over the east coast.

On a different note, not much hurricane activity so far this year in the Atlantic.  El Nino is producing windshear discouraging storms from getting started and the strong waves of dust from the Sahara Desert aren’t helping, either.  Fortunately.  See  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time for satellite detection of stable air from the Sahara Desert.

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