For Fri, Mar 20….
This is a classic storm forming off the Carolina coast and moving up off the northeast seaboard.
Here’s the factors at play….
- The computer forecast models like to make a storm of this situation, but differ on the results
- The major question is how long the cold-enough for snow air stays over our area.
- For the NYC area, the NWS’ best forecast is for snow, beginning in earnest after the Friday morning commute, changing to rain. The forecast is for staying all snow to the north and west, but less precip because they will be further from the storm there, so the snowfall amounts to about the same everywhere, with inland locations getting 2 to 5 inches, a bit less by the coast.
See http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter for the latest details and links to other areas in the northeast.
As the NWS says in the forecast discussion…where they like a point my brother Dan makes about heavier precip rates mean precip falling from colder air further up and more likely to be snow.
CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AS WE WOULD LIKE FOR FRI INTO SAT. TYPICALLY THESE LATE SEASON EVENTS CAN THROW A LOT OF COMPLICATING FACTORS INTO MIX AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION...INCLUDING HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES VERY DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY