NWS Explanation for Sunday night through Monday’s snowstorm…..

It’s worth checking the Forecaster’s Discussion for mid-day Sunday (issued two to four times a day) for their thinking on how this storm could go…..oh, and did a mention low temperatures near zero F Tuesday morning?

DO NOT SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE MODELS THIS RUN...AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS NOTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY.
ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTS SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME.

OVERALL...EXPECT 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 8 TO 12
INLAND. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. FOR
LONG ISLAND AND NYC...THESE ACCUMULATIONS ARE A TOTAL. THE ACTUAL
AMOUNTS COULD BE LOWER DUE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGEOVER.

FOR THE COAST...SNOW TO BRIEF PD OF RAIN/FZRA AND IP...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTN.

INTERIOR...MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED IN MONDAY MORNING.

TIMING FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR
SO MONDAY.

AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED. START TIME 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THIS CAN
BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

OF COURSE ANY SHIFT IN TRACK NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS OUR AREA WILL BE DEALING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE...WHICH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
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