Are they forecasting a lot of snow for you? It could be worse!

And ‘worse’ might mean less snow.

But if you look at the map of snow totals, the NWS appears to be forecasting less snow than they did earlier today for coastal areas.

This is because the computer models used for forecasting have been more recently predicting the storm to track further north, allowing more warm air in above the ground. But the cold air, from the last few days and the snow still on the ground, is likely to keep the ground refrigerated. Forecasting the old-fashioned way, by looking at the data and analyzed maps, it’s too soon to make a good forecast. The NWS says the interaction between systems that will set the table for the storm will not be well defined until late Sunday, so we hope the models will continue to come into agreement on this storm’s track.

Watch for snow starting late Sunday night, which on Monday will change to rain will freeze on the ground for the areas nearest the coast. ‘Lucky’ people further inland will get 8 to 14 inches of snow, but less of the freezing rain. Southern Westchester County is forecast to ‘only’ get 6 to 8 inches, but that’s due to the rain mixing in, some of which could freeze solid while it rains or after it changes back to snow later Monday afternoon.  Temperatures dropping to single digits for Tuesday morning will make whatever falls freeze.

The weather pattern for the rest of the week is still conducive for snow storms. The next chance later is the week. However, the latest model runs have the storm staying well out to sea.


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