Stellar weather, but watch for a disturbance in the force on Thursday

Update: The NWS is buying into the Thursday rain from a system forming off the southeast coast:
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
] THE LOW WITH THE NAM [see chart below ]CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE GFS THE MOST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WET
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY.
nam_namer_054_1000_500_thick

But Saturday looks good for the Westchester Astronomers’ Starway to Heaven!

A crazy large high pressure system is settling over our area tonight thanks to the jet stream steering well to the north of our area. This will give us California-quality weather, without the wildfires, I hope.

The National Weather Service (Buffalo office) noted this kind of high pressure system with the jet stream so far north at this time of year only happens (on average) once in 30 years or more.

In fact, the medium-range weather forecast models keep rain out of our area until a system passes to our north a week from Tuesday and a strong cold front sweeps down from Canada around the first week in October. That’s a long stretch of sunny days and lack of rain.

Watch for a disturbance coming up along the coast from off the southeastern coast on Thursday. It should stay off shore, but could put some rain into our area, especially from NYC and to its south and east. It’s not going to be a tropical storm, but could pump some tropical moisture our way.

Computer forecast from US Global Forecast Model for Thursday morning.  Note the area of rain (color circles) just off the NYC area shorelines.  And note that really large high pressure system centered off the northeast US, but also extending through the midwest into the Mississippi Valley and Great Plains.  Downloaded from http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/  Click to make large enough to read.

Computer forecast from US Global Forecast Model for Thursday morning. Note the area of rain (color circles) just off the NYC area shorelines. And note that really large high pressure system centered off the northeast US, but also extending through the midwest into the Mississippi Valley and Great Plains. Downloaded from http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Click to make large enough to read.

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