One storm or several smaller ones?

National Weather Service is noting the models are moving back to a multi-low pressure solution, as opposed to everything phasing together for one big storm. Our forecast depends on a large known uncertainty – what does the model do with a large upper air storm in the western US and when does it send its energy eastward?

Here’s what the NWS says in their NYC Forecast Discussion this morning……

AS A RESULT…THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO DEPART FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER…IF THE TREND CONTINUES
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE [South] SOLUTION…THEN LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE…IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ENTIRE REGION COULD END
UP GETTING NO SNOW AT ALL – THOUGH HIGHLY UNLIKELY. ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY THAT WOULD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS
THAT A WEAKER HIGH BUILDS TO THE N THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED…THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN ZONES…REDUCING AMOUNTS
THERE. THIS ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SOLUTION
STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST…THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS…OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK…THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND
SNOWFALL…BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA…DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY.

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