Snow, mix, snow

9:30pm update….From the National Weather Service….
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING FORECASTS THIS
WINTER FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE…WITH THE TIMING AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. HEAVIEST PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH A CHANGEOVER FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. EXACTLY WHEN THAT HAPPENS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

As we watch the frightening events in the southeast US today, we await the collision of two mighty systems. One brings moisture, the other, the kicker from the west brings energy to intensify the storm off of Long Island and the New England coast tomorrow. The key here is as the storm builds up, that’s when the when the highest snowfall rates occur.

For the NYC area, it looks like snow over night, heaviest from 4 to 9am. Then the warm air breaks through during the day, bringing ice pellets and some rain mixing in. That’ll reduce the snow fall amounts during the day, but traveling will continue to be very difficult. As the storm intensifies, back to snow Thursday night.

Then a small storm for later Friday which might add a little bit of snow when we don’t need it.

What’s happening at 4pm?
A line of thunderstorms, some severe, pushing into western Florida and moving across the state later this afternoon.
Freezing rain has snapped trees in Georgia. Hundreds of thousand are without power in GA and SC.
Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham got surprised by the quick start of the storm, with up to five inches of snow in three hours in central North Carolina trapping commuters released from work early.
Still to come:
Snow arrival in DC about 7 or 8pm, will start quickly there as well.
NYC metro area’s snow will start by morning.
Boston, not so bad this time, with mixed rain/snow limiting snowdepth to 2-4 inches east of I-95. Much more inland Mass.
Rochester – just the usual snow showers.

Click on the links in the previous entry for the latest NWS snow total forecasts and check them after 9pm this evening and Thursday morning for updates.

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