While there is still one model that predicts this storm will slide out to sea before reaching the NY/NJ area, it is likely that we’ll get a storm. Not the biggest storm ever. But likely to be bad enough. The NYC NWS office is calling this a ‘low confidence’ forecast of snow amount. The models are still producing different paths for this storm, looking like if I was doing the giant slalom course at the Olympics.
The uncertainty is that different paths give us different amounts of rain vs. snow, so the snow total is totally different if the path is different.
If you want to be scared, look at the Atlanta NWS office at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/
forecasting the possibility of a storm of snow and ice of ‘historic proportions’ .
Look for updates at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/
Scroll down and click on the “Storm Total Forecast” to see their take on the bottom line for snow amounts, running 6-8 inches for the NYC area and 8-10 north and west, starting late Wednesday/Thursday night for the NYC area, earlier further south.
Capitol Weather Gang will be live-blogging the next model run results as they come in, starting at 9pm. [My kind of people!!!]
My take: it’s all about how warm it gets and how much is rain and how much is snow, not whether we get the storm. Either way, we don’t need it and Thursday will be dangerous from Georgia to the northeast.