Updated Saturday evening….Expecting a big storm this weekend? Here’s a word from your local National Weather Service Office…..

Updated Saturday afternoon…..
See the fine print, below, for the words directly from the NWS in weather-speak, but here’s the story as of Saturday computer models and human interpretation…..
A weak storm will add a lovely coating over the entire area of an inch or two or snow.
It will start late Sunday and end early Monday.

The little storm will bring big cold air, with Tuesday morning feeling like near zero with a bit of wind and temperatures around 10.

The big storm for Thursday has many versions, depending on the model we look at.
The center of the wide spread of tracks predicted by the models runs up the northeast coast, with mixed rain/snow along the coast and snow inland.
Be alert, but don’t buy panic and don’t panic buy.

In their own words – from the 4pm NWS forecast discussion out of the NYC office….
[for sunday/monday] SO…THINKING AT THIS POINT THAT WE SHOULD SEE RIGHT AROUND OR JUST
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION…SO THINKING THAT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT…DO NOT WANT TO RULE OUT
A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS…BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE ARE TO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR LOW PRES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN CONUS
AND TRACK UP THE COAST WED NGT THRU FRI. THE ECMWF HAS REMAINED THE
FASTEST SOLN. WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING FASTER…HAVE SIDED WITH THE
FASTER SOLN. 12Z ECMWF WOULD BE SNOW INTERIOR AND SNOW TO RAIN/MIX
AT THE COASTS. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING STILL TO BE DETERMINED THIS
FAR OUT HOWEVER AS EVIDENCED BY THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLES.

&&

Updated Friday morning….the forecast tracks of low pressure systems this weekend keeps them south of the NYC area, with only a inch or two of snow late Saturday into Sunday if the low wobble further north, followed by isolated snow showers Saturday night through Sunday night.
There’s a weak area of snow possible for our area for Monday with an inch or less expected.
Wednesday night into Thursday, the models have a more substantial storm sweeping by us. The snow vs. ice vs. rain depends on the track, so the Weather Service has a ‘chance of snow’ placeholder for Wednesday night/Thursday.
Colder temperatures Monday – Wednesday, then the jet stream flow looks a bit warmer for later next week.
Quoting…..
THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW…FIRST EVENT IS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE. A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF
THE PRECIP TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
TRACKS APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER…SREF PLUMES STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW MEMBERS
SHOWING MEASUREABLE SNOW…MOSTLY FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH UP TO 2
INCHES. SO BASICALLY WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY…THE LOW COULD SHIFT
BACK NORTH WITH NEXT FEW RUNS AND THEREBY ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
INTRUDE THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED SREF MEMBERS SHOW A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD. MEANWHILE…THE
CURRENT ECMWF…NAM…GFS…AND CMC SHOW MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH FOR ISOLATED PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ECMWF 00Z RUN SHOWING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
REGION ON MONDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SECOND CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE LOW. THE LOW INTENSIFIES A LITTLE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THIS IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND CMC WHILE GFS
DOES NOT SHOW THIS SIGNAL. THE SREF PLUMES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT WITH SOME SREF MEMBERS SHOWING
A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIRD CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE END OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WITH THE MORE
MERIDIONAL FLOW…LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING DURING THE MODERATION
OF THE AIRMASS. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY…THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW
AND RAIN WITH SNOW AT THE START AND END OF THE EVENT. OF COURSE…IF
THE LOW DOES TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST…A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT DUE TO IT BEING THE LAST
FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY…DECIDED TO
LEAVE OUT THESE OTHER PRECIP TYPES FOR NOW.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014

…POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND…

ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS SHOW A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
WEEKEND…THEY DO NOT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE COASTAL STORM
THAT WOULD BRING HIGH IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING A …CHANCE… OF SNOW
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AT:

http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NYC

$$
GC

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