Heads UP! A delicate balance between rain and snow makes a dangerous Wednesday and snow totals for wed feb 5 2014

Snowfall amounts:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

And NYC area snow totals by 5pm Wed Feb 5 (link above will get the latest public info statement, which may change after the storm to some other topic!)
Compare to forecast by scrolling down to earlier story, included in this post.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
529 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS…SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…
TRUMBULL 10.5 339 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
FAIRFIELD 9.8 230 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
SHELTON 9.5 930 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
DANBURY 9.0 750 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
BETHEL 9.0 230 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
NEWTOWN 8.6 130 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
NORWALK 8.0 127 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
RIDGEFIELD 8.0 700 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
DARIEN 8.0 600 AM 2/05 CT DOT
WESTON 8.0 615 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BROOKFIELD 8.0 930 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 7.5 1215 PM 2/05 NWS COOP
NEW CANAAN 6.3 600 AM 2/05 CT DOT

…MIDDLESEX COUNTY…
CLINTON 6.3 930 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
WESTBROOK 5.0 800 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
OLD SAYBROOK 3.8 600 AM 2/05 CT DOT
WESTFIELD 3.0 835 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

…NEW HAVEN COUNTY…
SOUTHBURY 9.5 900 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAMDEN 9.0 325 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
YALESVILLE 9.0 1010 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
GUILFORD 9.0 815 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH HAVEN 8.0 1005 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
OXFORD 8.0 820 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
NAUGATUCK 7.8 715 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
MILFORD 7.0 830 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
WALLINGFORD 6.0 620 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
ORANGE 5.9 700 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW HAVEN 5.3 600 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
MERIDEN 5.1 755 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WATERBURY 4.8 600 AM 2/05 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 4.5 600 AM 2/05 CT DOT

…NEW LONDON COUNTY…
VOLUNTOWN 5.0 740 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
GALES FERRY 4.5 957 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLCHESTER 3.5 600 AM 2/05 CT DOT
STONINGTON 3.5 630 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORWICH 3.3 600 AM 2/05 CT DOT

NEW JERSEY

…BERGEN COUNTY…
LYNDHURST 8.5 1200 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
TETERBORO 6.5 1000 AM 2/05 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
FRANKLIN LAKES 6.0 600 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
SADDLE BROOK 5.9 1000 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BERGENFIELD 5.5 1145 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
MAHWAH 5.5 1000 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
WYCKOFF 5.3 1000 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 5.1 930 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIVERVALE 5.1 720 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
GLEN ROCK 5.0 710 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
EAST RUTHERFORD 4.7 842 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

…ESSEX COUNTY…
CEDAR GROVE 5.1 715 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
VERONA 5.0 700 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
NORTH CALDWELL 4.8 730 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEWARK AIRPORT 4.6 700 AM 2/05 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
BLOOMFIELD 4.6 120 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROSELAND 4.5 915 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
WEST ORANGE 4.5 800 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
MAPLEWOOD 3.3 745 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
MILLBURN 3.0 820 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

…HUDSON COUNTY…
KEARNY 5.5 1100 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
HARRISON 4.5 830 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BERGEN 4.0 1212 PM 2/05 EMERGENCY MNGR
HOBOKEN 3.2 900 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…PASSAIC COUNTY…
WEST MILFORD 6.5 1240 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BLOOMINGDALE 5.7 103 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WAYNE 5.0 659 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAWTHORNE 4.8 330 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW YORK

…BRONX COUNTY…
DODGEWOOD 6.5 1036 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BEDFORD PARK 5.5 530 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
PARKCHESTER 5.1 1152 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
PELHAM PARKWAY HOUSE 5.0 900 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
1 NE RIVERDALE 4.5 1009 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY…
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 2.0 630 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…NASSAU COUNTY…
BAYVILLE 5.3 1030 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
LOCUST VALLEY 5.0 921 AM 2/05 BROADCAST MEDIA
WOODBURY 4.5 900 AM 2/05 BROADCAST MEDIA
NORTH MERRICK 3.0 700 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
ALBERTSON 3.0 830 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
NEW HYDE PARK 2.8 232 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
UNIONDALE 2.5 550 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH MASSAPEQUA 1.5 730 AM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE

…NEW YORK COUNTY…
CENTRAL PARK 4.0 900 AM 2/05 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

…ORANGE COUNTY…
NEWBURGH 12.5 900 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
CHESTER 12.0 800 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
MONROE 12.0 230 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
MIDDLETOWN 11.4 1000 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
WARWICK 11.0 700 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER
HAMPTONBURGH 11.0 1030 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
GREENVILLE 11.0 850 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
OTISVILLE 11.0 136 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
GOSHEN 10.5 837 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER
HARRIMAN 9.5 800 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WESTTOWN 9.5 1115 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW WINDSOR 9.2 810 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
PORT JERVIS 8.7 700 AM 2/05 NWS COOP
WASHINGTONVILLE 8.3 1041 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER
GREENWOOD LAKE 8.0 945 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER
BLOOMING GROVE 8.0 847 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER
CORNWALL ON HUDSON 7.5 700 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WALDEN 7.0 716 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER
FORT MONTGOMERY 6.9 1100 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
FIRTHCLIFFE 6.5 630 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER
MOUNTAIN LODGE PARK 6.5 845 AM 2/05 EMERGENCY MANAGER

…PUTNAM COUNTY…
KENT CLIFFS 9.5 932 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
CARMEL 9.2 800 AM 2/05 NWS COOP
COLD SPRING 8.7 1100 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
MAHOPAC 8.0 1130 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BREWSTER 8.0 700 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

…QUEENS COUNTY…
NYC/LA GUARDIA 3.3 100 PM 2/05 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
ASTORIA 3.0 830 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
SOUTH OZONE PARK 3.0 415 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 2.2 700 AM 2/05 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
MIDDLE VILLAGE 2.1 525 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
CEDAR MANOR 1.3 1010 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…RICHMOND COUNTY…
HUGUENOT 3.6 730 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
SUNNYSIDE 3.2 930 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

…ROCKLAND COUNTY…
TALLMAN 7.0 800 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW CITY 6.2 958 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
VALLEY COTTAGE 6.1 730 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
ORANGEBURG 5.5 800 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
AIRMONT 5.5 725 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
NYACK 5.2 815 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
ORIENT 4.5 800 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
HUNTINGTON 3.3 200 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
SMITHTOWN 3.0 900 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
STONY BROOK 3.0 120 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOUND BEACH 2.6 630 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
NORTH BABYLON 2.5 700 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
CENTEREACH 2.5 830 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST BABYLON 2.5 1215 PM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE
UPTON 2.3 1000 AM 2/05 NWS OFFICE
WADING RIVER 2.3 615 AM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE
BAITING HOLLOW 2.1 700 AM 2/05 NWS COOP
MATTITUCK 2.0 530 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH PATCHOGUE 2.0 800 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
ISLIP AIRPORT 1.8 700 AM 2/05 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
EASTPORT 1.5 745 AM 2/05 NWS EMPLOYEE

…WESTCHESTER COUNTY…
SOMERS 11.5 300 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
ARMONK 9.1 1100 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
1 SSW CROMPOND 9.0 800 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
PEEKSKILL 7.5 252 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH SALEM 7.0 630 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 7.0 400 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
YONKERS 7.0 1215 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITE PLAINS 7.0 600 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 7.0 915 AM 2/05 NWS COOP
BRONXVILLE 6.5 800 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
ICE OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…
BETHEL 0.05 230 PM 2/05 PUBLIC

…NEW HAVEN COUNTY…
MERIDEN 0.03 115 PM 2/05 ASOS

NEW JERSEY

…BERGEN COUNTY…
FORT LEE 0.30 1000 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WYCKOFF 0.20 1000 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP 0.10 1000 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
SADDLE BROOK 0.10 1000 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…ESSEX COUNTY…
MAPLEWOOD 0.10 745 AM 2/05 PUBLIC

…HUDSON COUNTY…
NORTH BERGEN 0.25 1030 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
HOBOKEN 0.10 900 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…PASSAIC COUNTY…
HAWTHORNE 0.34 1130 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BLOOMINGDALE 0.20 103 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…UNION COUNTY…
CRANFORD 0.27 221 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
ROSELLE 0.11 1136 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW YORK

…NASSAU COUNTY…
UNIONDALE 0.20 945 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAYVILLE 0.15 1030 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROCKVILLE CENTRE 0.12 1030 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
NEW HYDE PARK 0.10 232 PM 2/05 PUBLIC

…NEW YORK COUNTY…
CENTRAL PARK 0.25 951 AM 2/05 ASOS

…ORANGE COUNTY…
MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 0.01 100 PM 2/05 ASOS

…QUEENS COUNTY…
SOUTH OZONE PARK 0.50 415 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
CENTEREACH 0.25 123 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BABYLON 0.15 700 AM 2/05 PUBLIC
SHIRLEY AIRPORT 0.13 700 AM 2/05 ASOS
SMITHTOWN 0.10 900 AM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
UPTON 0.10 1240 PM 2/05 NWS OFFICE

…WESTCHESTER COUNTY…
PEEKSKILL 0.11 252 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

$$

JP

Wed am update: sadly, storm is going as expected – almost half a foot of snow in the past 6 hours, now snow, freezing rain and ice pellets. May let up for a while about midday and then taper off this evening. Freezing cold for the next few days means they’ll have to work to keep the ice off the roads.
The weekend weather is still on hold – look for more detailed forecasts after this storm is over or late Thursday when the data will be better. – bob

It’s going to be a storm. It’s only how the balance will tip between rain vs. snow and whether the rain falls as ice pellets or freezes to everything in sight.

The forecasts are moving the balance a bit toward rain, but still with a significant snowfall between midnight and sunrise.

But the Weather Service is concerned that cold air will stay at the surface, even if the air aloft warms up enough to turn the snow to rain. That would mean ball-bearing-like ice pellets or rain freezing on roads and trees during the day – not good for anyone.
Of course, if the surface air warms up, it could turn a major storm into a washing-away rain. From the 7pm forecast discussion…
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF ICE EXTENDING FROM NE NJ…ACROSS THE NYC
METRO…AND ALONG NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CT. TO THE NW OF THIS LINE…EXPECT A HIGHER ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW…

What about the next storm? Here’s what the NWS says….
SO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EXISTS FOR THE
SUN/MON PERIOD…BUT SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS AND
ACCOMPANYING IMPACTS CAN NOT BE PREDICTED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE AS OF YET.
They note that by late Thursday or Friday the impulses that will make up this storm will be in the area of denser observations over North America and the models will improve their performance.

In the meantime…..
Here’s the forecast snow and ice amounts for the NYC area. If you go to their website, there are links to the maps from other NWS websites. Go to http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/ and click on Storm Total Forecast……

StormTotalSnowFcst

StormTotalIceFcst

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