Snow likely for Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Higher than normal tides expected Wednesday into Thursday, with a new moon followed closely by the moon’s perigee (nearest to us).
The National Weather Service is growing more confident in a coastal storm far enough off shore to provide a snow storm for Thursday. However, the amount of snow is still uncertain. Refined forecasts will be available later on Tuesday, as the pieces that are expected to combine to make the storm get over North America, where we have more upper air data collected and then the computer models will have more to work with.
In the NWS’ own words from Monday morning’s Forecast Discussion from the Brookhaven (NYC) office….
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN OVERRUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING WED NIGHT INTO THU AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
INCREASING IN WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUING THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACK SE OF THE REGION…BUT EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
AND WHETHER THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT OR WINTRY MIX FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME OF THESE FINER
DETAILS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HR AS
ABOVE MENTIONED PLAYERS BECOME BETTER INITIALIZED.
Pretty picture from the medium-range model forecast….
Storm in this model is well off shore, keeping us in the cold air, but the maximum snow is east of NYC on eastern Long Island and New England and offshore. (This all could change.)