Most of the time, there’s not too much attention to storms so many days in advance, except for those of us who love looking at long-range weather forecast models, even though we know it’s likely not to come to fruition.
But because this storm is near the peak travel days for Thanksgiving, there is more attention than usual.
There will be a storm; the question is what track it will take and when it will get its act together. Why such a problem this time? The energy in the upper atmosphere needed to complete this storm is tied up in an upper air storm over southern California. It’s harder to tell when the energy spinning around upper air storms is going to spin off from the storm or if the whole upper air system will move. So it’s more of a guessing game than usual as to when the pulse of energy will swing eastward and if it will combine with an other pulse of energy now south of Alaska. And like trapeze artists, the storm will be successful if the timing of the pulses is just right.
Consider when you have plans to travel in the eastern United States for Thanksgiving and check with your favorite weather provider for updates on the latest variations in the outcomes predicted by the forecast models.
The best place right now, in addition to the National Weather Service forecasts and forecast discussions, is the Capital Weather Gang on the Washington Post blog. CWG is talking about what the models are predicting, what it means for the mid-Atlantic and northeast states and – most importantly – what the variations in the forecast models mean and what level of certainty we should expect.
At this point, the general forecast is a storm off the eastern coast, with most areas getting a cold rain, but with lots of cold air before and after the storm. More like mid-January than late November!