Read the bold print, then the fine print….

Thursday:
EXPECT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE DC/PHILLY METRO
AREAS AT FIRST
…WHERE IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING VIA LIFT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH…THEN SPREAD NE MAINLY INTO
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAINLY STRATIFORM
SNOW…WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW…ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRIMARY LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.

FOR NOW…GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 1
INCH…EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS
AND SE CT WHERE 1-2 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
CONCERNED ABOUT THE
19/12Z AND 19/18Z GFS INSISTENCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIP VIA INCREASED
H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY…WHICH MAY HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
19/12Z ECMWF DESPITE THE LOWER QPF OF THAT MODEL…SO SNOWFALL
TOTALS COULD BE INCREASED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

So while the system’s effects should stay well east of the NYC metro area,
the NWS is uneasy due to a possibility, expressed in some models, that
weather front formation over the east coast may cause more snow than presently
forecast.
So keep checking your forecast during the day on Thursday.
After that, still cold through the weekend.
It’s getting to be that winter only happens in the occasional big snowstorm
and the month of March.

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