Wednesday night’s storm – proposed to move to our south Wednesday night. Below is some of the back and forth of the models and some analysis by the NWS.
Best forecast: Starts as rain or rain and snow late Wednesday afternoon, over before Thursday morning.
Most likely an inch of snow inland and two to three on the coast, more to the south, since the storm is passing to our south.
BUT there is a way for this to be 5 to 8 inches along the coast (not what Long Island needs!).
Also could be just a few or no flakes, on the other hand.
Here’s the write-up, below. Weekend also has a wide range of possibilities, so more on that tomorrow.
ANOTHER STRONG…FAST MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LI. FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW…MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF PCPN AS THE LOW TRACKS HAVE FLUCTUATED
NORTH AND SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT A DOWNWARD TREND
IN THE QPF…WITH THE NAM BEING THE WETTER AND MOST NORTHERN
SOLUTION…WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE
AND THE DRIEST. THE ECMWF AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT….AS IT IS AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT
BEING SAID…THERE IS SOME CONCERN IN THAT THERE IS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TO BRING
THE MODERATE/HEAVY PCPN INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION…THERE IS
ONGOING LIGHTING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES…AND THAT ALWAYS
BRINGS INTO QUESTION THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. STILL
THOUGH THIS IS NOT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM. WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE FOR HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH LIQUID. PREFERENCE
AT THIS TIME IS FOR ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH INLAND AND 2 TO 3
TENTHS AT THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AT
THE ONSET WILL RESULT IN A WET SNOW. THUS…LOOKING FOR AROUND AND
INCH INLAND…TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS LI.
Here’s the weather map for Wednesday…