Blizzard warnings up NYC to Maine starting as early as Friday 6am

From the NWS, NYC office (maps with projected snowfall totals are after the text….

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/

GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE ALL COMING INTO OVERWHELMINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A MAJOR…IF NOT HISTORIC WINTER STORM ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
UNDERGO MAJOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WHILE THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON…ALL PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO SNOW BY EVENING.
IN FACT…[the models have been forecasting] …BEEN COLDER… and
THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW …WHICH COULD ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA EVEN FASTER THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IN
THIS CASE…SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AT THE COAST IF A
CHANGEOVER DOES NOT OCCUR. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER [European model] BASED ON GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND TRENDS IN OTHER MODELS.

…ALL INGREDIENTS POINTING TOWARD SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDING SOMEWHERE IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SIGNATURE OFTEN INDICATES VERY HIGH
SNOWFALL TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. IN
ADDITION…WITH STORM CENTRAL PRESSURE SAT MORNING DROPPING TO
AROUND 975 MB NEAR THE BENCHMARK…40N…70W…AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AROUND 1040 MB...WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST…WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS TO THE WEST.

AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS…LOOKING FOR 10 TO 15 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST…12 TO 16 INCHES LOWER HUDSON VALLEY…AND 18 TO 24
INCHES ACROSS CT. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
STRONG SNOW BANDS.

THUS…BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM NYC METRO AND
POINTS EAST…WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO THE NW. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME FRIDAY AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GET UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S…BUT
THEN RAPIDLY FALL OFF INTO THE 20 FRIDAY EVENING AS WINDS TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

SNOW TAPERS OFF BY SAT AFT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON ITS BACKSIDE AND
TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS BY DAYBREAK SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
STARTING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT…SNOW WILL HAVE COME TO AN END BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL BE STRONG AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. ……LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS
NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 30S…MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO NEW YORK CITY.  MODELS HAVE
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP…STARTING AS SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY…MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

StormTotalSnowFcst StormTotalSnowFcstNE StormTotalSnow StormTotalSnowWebFcst

 

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