A big winter storm? Just a phase the atmosphere is going though

Boston appears to be the center of attention in the forecasts for Friday night, but all of the northeast is the stage for this performance of the latest atmospheric tantrum to develop in our area.

If the harmonies of the two branches of the jet stream come together, the storm stops and throws a violent tantrum just off southern New England coast and Hartford to suburban Boston to Maine.
NYC metro would get some light snow on Friday, heavy rain Friday night, and back to 3 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday morning.

But – if the harmonies of the northern and southern jet streams phase perfectly, which is possible, then the whole northeast gets 1 foot or more of snow.

The outcome will depend on the time of the phasing, the time of the forming of the storm, when it explosively intensifies and how much cold air the newborn storm brings from the north.

Watch out for strong winds on Saturday, as well.

Next, it could get warmer after the storm as the pattern shifts again.

Next storms on deck for:
Monday- to our west, mostly rain
Valentines’ Day – snow or rain, followed by a pattern shift bringing colder temperatures.

In the NWS’ own words…from Wed evening forecast discussion (check them for updates):
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY PHASE…WITH THE COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRI EVENING. THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS PHASING/DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE
HOW QUICKLY WINDS BACK TO THE N/NE AND DRAG COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION AND WHEN AND WHERE INTENSE HEAVY SNOW BANDING FEATURES
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY CRITICAL IN DETERMINING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST…WHERE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
FRI AFT.

AT THIS POINT…THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY…BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CT…WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 18 TO 24 INCHES AS MOST OF THE QPF WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY…THE REGION MAY BE IN
HEAVY BANDING LESS TIME THAN FARTHER EAST…WITH A RANGE OF 8 TO 16
INCHES. A SIMILAR RANGE IS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL CT…BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TRANSITION TIMING FROM RAIN TO SNOW.

THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS TOWARDS THE
CITY/LI…WHERE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND LOCATION/DURATION OF
BANDING WILL BE CRITICAL. A DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION AND/OR TIMING OF
EVEN 3 HRS IN THIS BANDING…COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE IN NOTHING
VERSUS 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND LI FOR A WATCH. IF TIMING OF PHASING
IS A BIT SLOWER…THAN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ONLY ADVISORY LEVELS
SNOWFALL…WHILE IF IT IS FASTER THAN FORECAST WE COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW.

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