Heads UP! Big storm to play ‘duck, duck, goose’ with us on Saturday

A storm will go big off the coast of the eastern US, but just tap us and move on, like a kid tapping the ‘goose’ in the kids game.
So just a bit of snow 2 to 4 inches or so for Saturday for the northeast from Philadelphia through coastal New Hampshire.

From the National Weather Service….see forecast discussion for New York City office
excerpted below…and see the weather map for Saturday, below the discussion…

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SAT MORNING.
ALL PCPN INITIALLY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
GUIDANCE EASILY BRINGING LOWS TONIGHT DOWN WELL BELOW
FREEZING…INTO THE TEENS INLAND…AND THE 20S NEAR THE COAST. THE
TEMP GUIDANCE ACTUALLY WARMS TEMPS TO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MANY
PARTS OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON…BUT …….. ONCE
THE PCPN HAS STARTED…THIS WOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN 4-5
DEGREES…AND THUS RESULT IN MOST AREAS SEEING SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY. THE MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE THE EASTERN PART OF
LI…………THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING IN BY THE AFTERNOON…WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO LOWER SNOW AMTS. THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE HEAVIEST QPF MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 15Z AND
00Z…CORRESPONDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MERGING WITH THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW AS IS PUSHES OFF THE
COAST. THE HIGHEST AMTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF…SO IF THE EASTERN HALF OF LI DOES REMAIN ALL SNOW…IT
COULD SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMTS…ALONG WITH EASTERN CT.
HOWEVER…IF THERE IS A TRANSITION TO RAIN…AMTS WILL BE LOWER.
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS IN IT REMAINING SNOW FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

THE OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE IF THE QPF AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST…WHICH WOULD THEN RESULT IN THE NYC METRO AREA AND HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY SEEING HIGHER AMTS…POSSIBLY BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE. THE CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE HIGHER AMTS WILL BE
EASTERN CT…AND LI…BUT THIS SHIFT POSSIBILITY SHOULD BE NOTED.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND…TOTAL SNOW FALL AMTS RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES…WITH THE LOWER AMTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC
METRO AREA…AND THE HIGHEST EASTERN LI AND CT. NCEP SREF PLUMES
GENERALLY CONCUR OF BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
CWA…WHILE HPC GUIDANCE HAS AROUND 2 INCHES AROUND NYC
METRO…AND 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA…SO
OVERALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MARGINAL ADVISORY EVENT…BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY STILL OF AREAS REACHING AT LEAST 3 INCHES…HAVE
WITHHELD THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED…GUIDANCE OVERDOING THE TEMPS DURING THE
DAY SAT…SO WENT WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 4-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. ALL AREAS BOTH NIGHTS WILL SEE
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING…INTO THE TEENS WELL INLAND…AND
IN THE 20S ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN GREATLY INCREASING AGAIN UNTIL SUNDAY…SO WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TEMPS.

Forecast weather map for Saturday

Forecast weather map for Saturday

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