Heads UP! Morning of Christmas Eve Update

An inch of snow or a mix for Christmas Eve – holding off until after sunset in the NYC area.
Coastal storm forms Wednesday, with mostly rain or a mix the most likely story, into Thursday
Possible Nor’easter for next weekend.

From the NWS Forecast Discussion:

Christmas Eve:

“EXPECT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING…WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. I DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH PRECIP UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET…MAINLY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS. ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX…WITH MAINLY SNOW INLAND.

“FORECAST PROFILES AND PARTIAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WOULD
SUGGEST SNOW TO START…WITH A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN NEAR THE
COAST…SNOW TO A MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS INCLUDING
COASTAL CT…AND ALL SNOW INLAND DURING THE EVENING. PRECIP TAPERS
OFF TUESDAY MORNING.

“I DO NOT FORESEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR TWO SNOW ACCUM WITH THIS FAST MOVING EVENT….”

For the Wednesday/Thursday event:
“***STRONG COASTAL STORM EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY***”
“SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
[second storm- common is winter storms along the eastern US]
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK
OVER OR JUST S OF THE AREA THU MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

“SOME WAVERING WITHIN A 50-75 MILE SWATH STILL EXISTS WITH THE TRACK
OVER THE NYC METRO AREA…BUT HOPE IS FOR A BIT MORE CONSENSUS AS THE
RESPONSIBLE PAC SHORTWAVE GETS BETTER SAMPLED FROM THIS MORNING ON.
THE EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE PTYPE…BUT THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK AS
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR THE COAST WITH A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW…AND A WINTRY MIX FOR THE INTERIOR. THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM WILL DETERMINE PTYPES AND AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR…BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE TREND OF A
SLOWER APPROACH OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS…WITH MAIN IMPACTS NOW
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.

“MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO BE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS…HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND COASTAL FLOODING LATE WED INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

“IN TERMS OF WINDS…25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS
OF 50-60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND THE STORM WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND/OR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES.

For the weekend:
“… MODELS STILL INDICATING LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYSTEM
NEXT WEEKEND…BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NOR`EASTER. GFS REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE AS DOES ALL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS. 12Z EC HAS TRENDED
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST…BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HIGH IMPACT
EVENT.

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