National Weather Service 7pm Monday Discussion

The latest discussion on the storm is out.  It will be updated in the 
morning, after they see the overnight model runs. The NWS, as well as
Weather Channel, is seeing some of the models moving the forecast track
more to the east - which would put us further into the colder air.
Don't mind the blue type of some of the words; in the original it
links to explanations for the words.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... MODELS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLN (solution) FOR THE STORM. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE/GGEM ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES OF THE STORM TIL 00Z THU. SOLNS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFT (after) THE MATURATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A MID-UPR 980S LOW WILL DEVELOP ABOUT 150-160 MILES ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z THU. WITH A 1030 OR SO HIGH OVER LABRADOR...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY ADJUST TO THE PRES DURING THE DAY. THESE POWERFUL WINDS WILL LAST THRU THE EVE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE CORE OF THESE WINDS. AFT THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM WED NGT...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NEWD BUT WILL REMAIN AN OCCLUDED WIND MACHINE...PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE THRU THU. EXACT PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND DEPTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS. DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE NWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COLDEST SOLN AND IS TRENDING COLDER. THE PRIME CANDIDATE FOR SIG ACCUMS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER. A MIX HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO PORTIONS OF THE CITY AND COASTS...WITH NO ACCUMS...AND LIGHT ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INDICATED ACROSS THE HIGHER INTERIOR SPOTS. BASED ON HOW THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...AN EWD TREND IN THE TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND LESS WIND. AS THE STORM DRIFTS PAST AND AWAY THU-THU NGT...PERIODS OF LIGHTER PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED MDT BANDS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WIDESPREAD MDT-HVY PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED ABV...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND DIMINISH THU NGT. AS ALWAYS...THIS STORM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO CHANGES/UPDATES CAN BE EXPECTED. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED-WED NGT. NO WINTER WEATHER WATCHES ATTM. A SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN POSTED. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS FRI INTO SAT...THEN A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE AVG SUNDAY/MON AS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. SLIGHT CHANCE POP ENTERS THE FORECAST ON MON AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MAKE ITS INITIAL APPROACH.

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