Waiting as Sandy+ Fakes Right, Goes Left

Just north of NYC, we are waiting for the strongest blows of the enhanced storm Sandy, or for short Sandy+.

As of 7:45am, we are seeing winds gusting into the 30 MPH range, windy, but not crippling.

Here’s my Heads UP! from last night with links to useful information.

Like a superb football running back, the remains of Storm Sandy will find her natural path to the open ocean blocked and then seek an opening to go through to her left.

There, is a surprise for Sandy – a proverbial meteorological fountain of youth, as a strong upper air disturbance with a sharp contrast between warm and cold air transforms the aging Sandy into a rejuvenated, powerful nor’easter.

 That’s what the dynamic models are predicting.  If you distrust models (er – every thing is a model of some sort, even looking out the window and making a decision as to what will happen!), old-timers are looking at the maps, and while they don’t see many (if any) parallels to this situation, they can see the blocking set up that is expected to steer Sandy+ toward the east US coast.

 So, watch the track of the storm, but don’t get fooled by the movement to the northeast now, watch for the curve back toward us, with the satisfaction that you are as prepared as you can be for any outcome.  If the fake is real and Sandy goes out to sea – wonderful !   Without the blocking high, nine of ten times that is what would happen. One out of ten times even with this weather map we are seeing, it could go out to sea, but we have to prepare for the nine of ten times it fakes right and turns left. 

 I won’t give specific forecasts – others have more time and data to do it better – read the NWS and private forecasts and their discussions as the Sandy+ strike point on the east coast is still up for grabs.

 Be prepared.

 The storm may be less of a problem if it comes ashore north of you, but the wide area that may be covered by strong winds would still be a problem.

 For your location, follow your local forecast.

For gory details and speculation on timing, check out :

 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/

Weather underground and Weather Channel bloggers there.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang

For DC, but also a good source of level-headed analysis.

 

Please don’t say ‘nobody told me it might be this bad’!

We had at least two days to prepare – a long time by most weather forecast standards.

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