Lining up snow for Monday

February 28, 2014 Leave a comment

The minor adjustments in the NWS thinking for Monday is the timing of snow, perhaps from Midnight through the midday on Monday, otherwise the options in the last post are still in play.

Go to your local forecast from the NWS to get their thoughts on when the snow might fall and when the most of the snow would be……http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ardsley&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=41.0146&lon=-73.8412#.UxD4B7Rm3IX
Click on your location on the map for the local details.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

also has links to other forecast offices’ snow forecast…
StormTotalSnowFcst

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One storm or several smaller ones?

February 28, 2014 Leave a comment

National Weather Service is noting the models are moving back to a multi-low pressure solution, as opposed to everything phasing together for one big storm. Our forecast depends on a large known uncertainty – what does the model do with a large upper air storm in the western US and when does it send its energy eastward?

Here’s what the NWS says in their NYC Forecast Discussion this morning……

AS A RESULT…THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO DEPART FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER…IF THE TREND CONTINUES
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE [South] SOLUTION…THEN LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE…IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ENTIRE REGION COULD END
UP GETTING NO SNOW AT ALL – THOUGH HIGHLY UNLIKELY. ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY THAT WOULD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS
THAT A WEAKER HIGH BUILDS TO THE N THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED…THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN ZONES…REDUCING AMOUNTS
THERE. THIS ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SOLUTION
STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST…THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS…OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK…THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND
SNOWFALL…BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA…DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY.

Categories: Uncategorized

Colder, then a cold front lays a trap

February 27, 2014 Leave a comment

Friday morning will be very cold, even for winter. This is one of the few times, despite the cold winter, when we could set records for low temperatures for Friday and Saturday. Some snow showers with little or no accumulation this weekend.

Scroll down for the story about snow for next week – after the National Weather Service write-up comparing temperatures for the next few days with historical daily temperature records (not all-time lows – we’re well above that).

.CLIMATE…
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY…FEBRUARY 28 AND SATURDAY MARCH 1…AND THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AS WELL.

FRIDAY

LOW TEMPERATURE

SITE……..RECORD/YEAR SET…FORECAST LOW
NEWARK……….0/1934…………6
BRIDGEPORT…..10/1950…………6
CENTRAL PARK….5/1934…………8
LAGUARDIA……14/1994…………9
KENNEDY……..15/1950…………8
ISLIP……….13/1994…………8

HIGH TEMPERATURE

SITE……..RECORD LOW MAX/YEAR SET…FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK…………24/1934……………..18
BRIDGEPORT……..27/1980……………..19
CENTRAL PARK……21/1875……………..18
LAGUARDIA………29/2008……………..20
KENNEDY………..30/1980,2008…………19
ISLIP………….28/1994,2008…………19

SATURDAY

SITE……..RECORD LOW/YEAR SET…FORECAST LOW
NEWARK……….7/1980…………13
BRIDGEPORT……6/1980…………9
CENTRAL PARK….5/1884…………16
LAGUARDIA…….9/1980…………18
KENNEDY………8/1980…………14
ISLIP……….14/1994…………8

&&
Glad you made it down here -
The NWS is telling us that the front coming through this weekend will lay out to our south. The lift of warm air over the front will overshadow us. Combine that with a an area of peak wind in the jet stream to our north will result in trapping a lot of air over us with nowhere to go but up.
That sets up for a storm to develop and pass off our coast.

If the front lays the trap further south, less snow. If the front lays the trap further north, more warm air will decrease snow amounts due to mixing with sleet and rain.

If the trap is sprung, then eight inches or more of snow will happen over the NYC and surrounding area. Less far inland and most near the coast. The snow would start Sunday night and end Monday night.

Stay tuned for updates over the weekend.

Categories: Uncategorized

Wednesday intense snow, not amounting to much

February 25, 2014 Leave a comment

The NWS is noting that the very unstable atmosphere with a small but strong upper air wave will give periods of impressive snowfall during Wednesday morning, but is predicting accumulations of 1 to 2 inches total in the locally heavy showers, with most areas getting 1/2 inch total.

Saturday has a cold front bringing the more arctic air into our area with a few snow showers, which might be impressive but not amount to much.

The problem with this front is if it doesn’t go far enough south, when waves of low pressure come along the front, it may drop snow on us if we stay on the north (colder) side of the front for the first half of next week.

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After Friday, no big storms for a while, but the dreaded polar vortex back later next week

February 19, 2014 Leave a comment

After a line of rain – with thunderstorms – lingers over the east coast on Friday, we go for a while without major storms, but a polar low will drive cold air into the midwest and northeast starting by the middle of next week, with the coldest air arriving by the beginning of March.

Look below at the computer forecast map for the northern hemisphere at one kilometer above the surface for Saturday evening MARCH 1st (00Z March 2 on the map); the blue area is the coldest temperatures – look at the area of blue extending from the USA on the lower right back across the North Pole to Siberia.
The solid lines show the wind flow.

From the ncep.noaa.gov website, where the US weather models live

From the ncep.noaa.gov website, where the US weather models live

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Another little snowstorm

February 17, 2014 Leave a comment

God has been busy putting little coats of snow to refresh the white coating on the ground.
Tuesday has another storm sweeping through the northeast.
Wednesday brings some light rain and an all rain event all day is forecast for Friday as the temperatures get warmer this week. But repeated cold fronts bring the chill back for the beginning of next week.

The aviation forecast summary is a quick primer on the agenda for this mini-snowfall of 2 to 5 inches, less where rain mixes in…..
HIGH CONFIDENCE PCPN STARTS BETWEEN 09-12Z [4am - 7am] IN THE MORNING AS ALL
SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN AROUND 15-17Z [10am - 12noon] ALONG THE
COAST…AND BCMG ALL RAIN IN THE AFTN FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE PCPN
ENDS. LESSER CONFIDENCE OF INLAND SITES SEEING RAIN MIX IN AND
COULD SEE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. PCPN ENDS AROUND 21Z [4pm] IN THE AFTN.
At the NYC National Weather Service site at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/ (or your local NWS office)…….
Click on Storm Total Forecast for the map of predicted snowfall amounts. (Also see links to forecast maps for surrounding areas.)
Click on Forecast Discussion for the NWS’ take on where most of the snow may fall.
Click on your location and check the hourly forecast to see the forecast of when the snow will fall.
Monday evening map for the NYC office’s forecast snowfall amounts for its area…..
StormTotalSnowFcst

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A little too much more snow

February 15, 2014 Leave a comment

Today, Saturday, another storm will explosively ‘bomb’ off the east coast of the United States, but further north this time, so the NYC will be on the edge of the rapidly developing snow.
There will be a large difference in snowfall amounts along the 118 mile length of Long Island, from 2 to 4 inches to the west and much more on the eastern end.
A minor change westward in where the storm develops or where the bands of rapidly developing snow go will make for higher accumulations in the NYC area.
Watch the NWS forecast for updates and see the snowfall forecast map here:
Go to http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/
Scroll down and click on Storm Total Forecast. On that page there are also links to maps of forecast snow amounts for Albany, Boston, Binghamton and Philadelphia forecast offices.
A map from the NYC office from early Saturday morning is below.

For the next week, look out for snow starting overnight into Tuesday morning, maybe changing to rain and ending as snow late Tuesday.
The we continue the change in the jet stream allowing warmer air further north, with a rain or mixed rain/ice/snow storm later in the week. Perhaps highs in the 50s by next Saturday.

StormTotalSnowFcst

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