Coastal storm likely to miss NYC area
NWS statement, below, translation: Storm to form off eastern US coast
on Sunday and stay to our south and no snow. BUT jet stream flows are
complex with many branches and it’s possible (not likely)for a storm
to come near us with rain and snow going to all rain.
In their own words….
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TAKE A TRACK FROM THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TRI-STATE
AREA DRY WITH A TIGHT PCPN GRADIENT JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. AS SUCH…CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK DOWN THE
CHANCE OF PCPN WITH VERY LOW POPS. THAT BEING THE CASE…THERE ARE
STILL SOME COMPLEX INTERACTIONS BETWEEN MULTIPLE STREAMS OF THE
POLAR JET AND THEREFORE DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY SHUT THE BOOK ON
THIS STORM. SHOULD THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN SHIELD MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA…WE CAN EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER…A STEADY
PCPN WOULD LIKELY COOL TO THE WET BULB WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW. THIS SOLUTION THOUGH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.